On May 26, Donald Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's secured a comfortable victory over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate. The, shall we say, "ethically challenged" Paxton will face Democratic nominee James Talarico in the general election.
Texas is a crucial seat in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate this year, and the outcome of this election will go a long way toward determining which party has the majority next year.
Given the importance of this election, here are four solid, quantitatively based, down-to-earth reasons why Democrat James Talarico has a realistic chance to defeat Ken Paxton in Texas this year:
1) Texas really is getting bluer, even if it still leans red.
While Texas does still lean Republican compared to the nation as a whole, the degree to which it leans Republican really did meaningfully change sometime between 2012 and 2016.
Looking at presidential election data from Dave Leip, we can see that Texas was about 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in the 2004-2012 presidential elections, but only 10-12 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in the 2016-2024 presidential elections. While that is not enough to declare Texas a swing state just yet, it does show that a sizable shift toward Democrats really has taken place in Texas (or, at least took place sometime between 2012 and 2016).
2) The national political environment is very good for Democrats in 2026
As of May 27, Democrats lead by about seven points, or possibly a little more, in the generic congressional ballot, which is the closest measure of national political sentiment in a midterm election year. You can see generic congressional ballot averages on websites such as Decision Desk HQ (Dems + 7.3), Silver Bulletin (Dems + 7.0) and Real Clear Politics (Dems + 7.7), among others.
If Texas has swung toward Democrats by the same degree as the rest of the nation, given the 10-12 point Republican lean of Texas, that puts the base lead in Texas for an average Republican candidate running against an average Democratic candidate at somewhere around three to five points. Three to five points is a margin where things start to get interesting!
3) Ken Paxton is a bad candidate with a lot of baggage.
Attorney General Ken Paxton is not an average candidate. He has been plagued by scandals during his nearly 20 years in the public eye, as a website called The Barbed Wire usefully chronicles. These scandals include federal securities fraud charges, an FBI investigation for bribery and abuse of office, lawsuits for firing whistleblowers, mortgage fraud allegations, being impeached in Texas by a coalition of Republicans and Democrats, and having a wealthy donor hire Paxton's mistress to a plum job. (No wonder Donald Trump likes this guy, am I right?)
This long list of scandals, plus a negative approval rating and a negative favorability rating, provide good reasons to think that Ken Paxton will perform worse than an average Republican candidate in a general election. And keep in mind that, right now, an average Republican candidate in Texas only has about four points to spare against an average Democratic candidate.
4) James Talarico may be an above average Democratic candidate.
It is admittedly difficult to know how well James Talarico will perform compared to an average Democratic candidate in a statewide election, since this is the first time he has ever run in one. However, there are clear signs that Talarico might be perform better than your average Democrat:
In a Texas that has gotten meaningfully bluer, in a good year for Democrats nationally, with a unpopular, scandal-plagued Republican going up against a Democratic candidate with a fresh face and lots of resources, it is actually conceivable that Democrats could narrowly pull out a victory in Texas in 2026. It will take everything we've got to pull it off, but we need to make it happen because it will be pretty difficult to win back the Senate this year if we cannot win in Texas.
Please, split a donation between James Talarico for Senate and Bowers Kerbel Media. The stars may have aligned to finally make it possible to turn Texas blue.
Note: Bowers Kerbel Media is the two-person, pro-democracy and pro-Democratic organization that runs both the Bowers News Media news and activism email list, and Wolves and Sheep, the informed political analysis and practical life advice Substack. The amount you give to each entity on the page can be adjusted by clicking "customize amounts." No donation to Bowers Kerbel Media is required to donate to Jamaes Talarico. You can find out more about James Talarico, and support him directly, on his campaign website.