Democrats are performing extremely well in special elections in 2025.
According to The Downballot, across the 31 special elections for state legislative and House of Representatives seats that have been held in 2025, the Democratic candidate has outperformed Kamala Harris's November 2024 vote share in those districts by a mean of 15.4 points, and a median of 13 points. This shift is very similar to special elections results from 2017-2018, just before Democrats retook Congress in a big blue wave in November 2018. A shift of this magnitude would even put control of the U.S. Senate in play in 2026.
The next big special election comes in a vacant, Republican-held state Senate seat in Iowa (the first Senate district), on August 26. This is a race you should know about, for at least three reasons:
1) The district voted 55-44 Trump in 2024. However, that margin is actually smaller than the average pro-Democratic shift in special elections so far in 2025, and Democrats were actually able to win the district back in 2018. So, this is red turf where Democrats could actually win.
2) Iowa could be crucial in 2026. For whatever reason, the strongest pro-Democratic shift in the country so far in 2025 has taken place in Iowa. Of the three special elections held in Iowa so far in 2025, all three have experienced a pro-Democratic shift of 20 points or more compared to 2024. This is really important, because it puts the Senate seat held by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, who is up for re-election in 2026, in play. In turn, that means control of the U.S. Senate is in play. This special election will go a long way toward determining if the pro-Democratic shift in Iowa is real.
3) The Republican candidate is everything you dislike about MAGA:
Local leaders in both parties have now chosen candidates for the Aug. 26 special election for a vacant seat in the Iowa Senate that could see Democrats break the GOP's supermajority in the chamber.
On Wednesday, Democrats tapped progressive organizer Catelin Drey, an employee at a marketing firm who also founded a group called Moms for Iowa, which mobilizes mothers to communicate with lawmakers about issues like gun violence and reproductive freedom.
A day earlier, Republicans nominated media consultant Christopher Prosch, who has worked as a political operative and communications strategist for a variety of far-right figures, as Iowa Starting Line catalogs, including now-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.
Among other things, Prosch has falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen; amplified conspiracy theories about the 9/11 terrorist attacks; has said rape victims should be forced to give birth to their rapists' babies; and suggested that abortion is worse than the Holocaust.
Put it all together, and this special election is a chance to defeat an ultra-MAGA candidate in a red district, and in the process show that the U.S. Senate is in play in 2026.
Please, split a donation between Catelin Drey, the Democratic candidate for the August 26 special election in the first Senate district of Iowa, and Bowers News Media PAC. Let's defeat an ultra MAGA candidate in a red district, and prove that the U.S. Senate is in play in 2026 in the process.