The current balance of power in the House of Representatives is 219 for Republicans and 213 for Democrats, with three vacancies.
One Democrat, Adelita Grijalva, who won a special election last month to replace her late father, Rep. Raul Grijalva, will be sworn in the next time the House is in session. That will bring the balance of power to 219-214.
Another Democrat will be sworn in sometime later this year, once the special election for the vacant 18th congressional district of Texas has concluded. The non-partisan primary for that election will be held on November 4, and a runoff will be held a few weeks later if no single candidate receives a majority of the total vote in the primary. This is a heavily Democratic district, making a victory for Democrats all but assured. That will bring the balance of power to 219-215.
Now, here is where things get interesting. On Tuesday, December 2, in what will be an extremely low turnout election on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn will take on Trump-endorsed Republican Matt Van Epps in the special election for Tennessee's vacant 7th congressional district. The district became vacant when Republican Rep. Mark Green left Congress for the private sector earlier this year.
This is a pretty red district, but not quite so red that a Republican victory is assured. Last year, Donald Trump won this district by a margin of 60-38. Across the 43 special elections for vacant state legislative and House of Representatives seats held so far in 2025, there have actually been 10 occasions–or almost 1 in 4--when the Democratic candidate outperformed Kamala Harris's 2024 vote margin by 22 points or more. One of those ten of those even happened in one of the four special elections to fill a vacant House of Representatives seat that have taken place in 2025!
A 22-point swing, which appears to have a nearly a 1 in 4 chance of happening, would be enough to actually win this campaign in Tennessee, and reduce the Republican majority in the House of Representatives to only 219-216. With Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky voting against almost every major bill Republicans try to push through the House, that would lower the margin of additional defections that Republicans can afford and still pass partisan bills to zero.
Beyond making it virtually impossible for House Republicans to pass any additional partisan legislation, a Democratic victory in a southern district that Trump won by 22 points would send an unmistakable message that the country is rejecting Donald Trump's presidency. Many Republicans in Congress in competitive districts would decide not to seek re-election, and many others would become more vocal in their willingness to break with Donald Trump.
In short, a victory in the December 2 special election for the vacant 7th congressional district of Tennessee would deal a significant blow to Donald Trump's power and prestige, practically put an end to Republican's ability to pass partisan legislation, and make it easier for Democrats to sweep the 2026 midterm elections. And election results so far in 2025 suggest that there is about a 1 in 4 chance it could actually happen!
To help make this happen, I have created this ActBlue page, where you can donate to Democrat Aftyn Behn for Congress, and also to Bowers Kerbel Media, which is the organization that operates both the Bowers News Media email list and the Wolves and Sheep Substack. The default setting for the page is to split your donation evenly between the two committees, but you can change the amounts that you give to each. To learn more about Aftyn Behn, you can read her Wikipedia page here and visit her campaign website here. You can also donate to her directly on her campaign website.
Please, split a donation between Democrat Aftyn Behn for Congress, and also to Bowers Kerbel Media. This is a crucial, obscure, low turnout special election, held the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, that could deal a significant blow to Donald Trump's power and prestige, not to mention put a practical end to the ability of House Republicans to pass partisan legislation.