PEC High-Impact Races 2018

Goal thermometer

Your donations have the greatest effect when they are directed at close races where swinging a few votes might have a major effect on the political landscape. This year, the Princeton Election Consortium focused at first on control of the Senate. In October, it appears that House control is a closer question.

Here we identify six Senate races that are on the knife's edge: Arizona (D-Sinema v. R-McSally), Nevada (D-Rosen v. R-Heller), Missouri (D-McCaskill v. R-Hawley), Florida (D-Nelson v. R-Scott), and Indiana (D-Donnelly v. R-Braun), and Montana (D-Tester v. R-Rosendale). The Texas race is heavily exposed and also not within five points, and is therefore excluded.

A change in control of the Senate appears unlikely at present. However, a 50-50 split is possible, which would lead to power-sharing. Also, the 2018 outcome sets the stage for 2020, when the landscape is more favorable for Democrats. Note that most close races will break in the same direction because in midterm years, polls fail to capture differences in enthusiasm between the parties.

In addition, one governor's race is highlighted: Wisconsin (D-Evers v. R-Walker). Election of Evers would have far-reaching consequences, including bipartisan redistricting in 2021 in a notoriously gerrymandered state.

Finally, we have added close House races (polls within 5 percentage points) in states where there is also a close Senate race. Here, your donation does double duty.

We'll update this list as polls change. Current version: October 18, 2018.

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If you would prefer to donate by check, please mail to Rosen for Nevada, PO Box 27195, Las Vegas, NV 89126. Contributions to Rosen for Nevada are not tax deductible. An individual or federal PAC may contribute a maximum amount of $2,700/$5,000 per election, the Primary and General being separate elections. Contributions from corporations, labor organization treasury funds, foreign nationals, and federal government contractors are prohibited. Contributions must be made from the contributor’s own funds, not those of another and contributors may not be reimbursed by any other person or entity. Federal law requires us to use best efforts to collect and report the name, mailing address, occupation and employer of individuals whose contributions exceed $200 in an election cycle.
If you prefer to send us a check, please make checks payable to "McCaskill for Missouri" and mail to: PO Box 300077 St Louis, MO 63130
Checks made payable to Sinema for Arizona can also be accepted by mail to P.O. Box 7586, Phoenix, 85011-7586.
Contributions to Montanans for Tester are not tax deductible.

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