PEC High-Impact Races 2018

Goal thermometer

Your donations have the greatest effect when they are directed at close races where swinging a few votes might have a major effect on the political landscape. This year, the Princeton Election Consortium focused at first on control of the Senate. In October, it appears that House control is a closer question.


Here we identify six Senate races that are on the knife's edge: Arizona (D-Sinema v. R-McSally), Nevada (D-Rosen v. R-Heller), Missouri (D-McCaskill v. R-Hawley), Florida (D-Nelson v. R-Scott), and Indiana (D-Donnelly v. R-Braun), and Montana (D-Tester v. R-Rosendale). The Texas race is heavily exposed and also not within five points, and is therefore excluded.


A change in control of the Senate appears unlikely at present. However, a 50-50 split is possible, which would lead to power-sharing. Also, the 2018 outcome sets the stage for 2020, when the landscape is more favorable for Democrats. Note that most close races will break in the same direction because in midterm years, polls fail to capture differences in enthusiasm between the parties.


In addition, one governor's race is highlighted: Wisconsin (D-Evers v. R-Walker). Election of Evers would have far-reaching consequences, including bipartisan redistricting in 2021 in a notoriously gerrymandered state.


Finally, we have added close House races (polls within 5 percentage points) in states where there is also a close Senate race. Here, your donation does double duty.


We'll update this list as polls change. Current version: October 18, 2018.

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