PEC High-Impact Legislative Races 2020

November 4: These elections are over. Some candidates won, but many lost. Thank you for your generous donations! You did as much as you could, and more.

This year, your donations to this list will help local policies and stop gerrymandering.

In 2020, state legislatures will influence redistricting for the entire decade to come.

Your donations have the greatest effect when they are directed at close races where swinging a few votes might have a major effect on the political landscape. This year, the Princeton Election Consortium is focused on state-level questions.

We are watching for evidence that key state legislatures will be competitive. So far we have identified four: Kansas, Texas, Nebraska, and North Carolina.

Kansas: Flipping just one legislative seat will break the supermajority and lead to bipartisan governance, including redistricting. We focused on Steve Crum, HD-98 in the Wichita area, a challenger whose last race was decided by 130 votes. We have hit our fundraising target for him.

The Texas House has a key role in redistricting, and has become competitive. For Democrats, key pickup opportunities are to be found in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston area. The Tarrant County Democratic Party (6 key districts) and Harris County Democratic Party (5 key districts).

In North Carolina, where the governor has no say in redistricting, a court-redrawn map has made the legislature more competitive. We have access to analysis indicating that the state Senate is slightly more likely to flip than the House. Listed here is Allen Wellons in Senate District 11, which has high per-voter power, as well as key state House districts.

Nebraska has a unicameral, nominally nonpartisan legislature. A two-thirds majority is required to pass a redistricting plan. If the Democratic Party-affiliated candidates can keep one-third of seats, they have a say in redistricting. The 2nd Congressional District is currently a swing district. Because Nebraska allocates electoral votes by Congressional district, this will matter for the Presidency as well.

Ohio has two key state Supreme Court races. These races have the potential to flip a 5 R, 2 D majority to 4 D, 3 R. One candidate, Jennifer Brunner, has come out explicitly against gerrymandering. She is listed here.

We'll update this list as we get more information. Current version: October 27, 2020.