Senate Moneyball 2026

This ActBlue is for optimized donations for control of the U.S. Senate. This list will be updated regularly.


At stake in 2026 are control of the U.S. Senate and House, as well as key state legislatures. Your donations have the greatest effect when they are directed at close races where swinging a few votes might have a major effect on the political landscape.


To gain control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats must win four seats. At present, the Republican candidate is within 5 points in 13 states: Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Texas. The last time this many races were that close was 1980. Of those 13 seats, only two are held by Democrats. This means that in 2027, the Democratic+Independent caucus could be anywhere from 45 to 58 seats.


As defined by the methods of Vote Maximizer:, the top per-voter power ratings are in South Dakota, Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, Idaho, Kansas, and Iowa. South Dakota has exceptionally high leverage because of its close margin and small population.


Normalizing by funding (FEC total raised to date in Q2 2026), again South Dakota has the highest per-dollar leverage by a wide margin, followed by Idaho and Kansas, and then followed by Maine, Nebraska, and Iowa. All are listed here except for independent Todd Achilles of Idaho, whose website is achillesforidaho dot com.


Alaska does not make the cut because ir a so heavily funded.


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