Senate Moneyball 2026

This ActBlue is for optimized donations for control of the U.S. Senate. This list was updated on October 29 - adding South Carolina and Louisiana.


At stake in 2026 are control of the U.S. Senate and House, as well as key state legislatures. Your donations have the greatest effect when they are directed at close races where swinging a few votes might have a major effect on the political landscape.


To gain control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats must win four seats. At present, the Republican candidate is within 5 points in 15 states: Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Texas. The last time this many races were that close was 1980. Of those 15 seats, only three are held by Democrats. This means that in 2027, the Democratic+Independent caucus could be anywhere from 44 to 59 seats.


As defined by the methods of Vote Maximizer, the top per-voter power ratings are in South Dakota, Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, Idaho, Kansas, and Iowa. South Dakota had high leverage because of its close margin and small population, but polls indicate a widening gap.


Normalizing by funding (FEC total raised to date in Q2 2026), Kansas has the highest per-dollar leverage, followed by Maine, Nebraska, and Iowa. We are keeping an eye on South Carolina.


Alaska does not make the cut because it is so heavily funded.


For further information on all races see VoteMaximizer.org. Please support our efforts to help everyone optimize their efforts - consider giving to us at Third Mountain Action!

 

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