Take Nothing for Granted is a Joint Fundraising Agreement between Randy Villegas, running to flip CA-22 and Marni von Wilpert, running to flip CA-48. Unless otherwise indicated, all donations will be split equally between these two candidates.
What is the story behind Take Nothing for Granted?
Democrats are currently down by 3 seats in the House. However, due to gerrymandering plus the gutting of the VRA, Dems are likely to lose 12 seats, putting us down by 15 heading into the midterms:
6 Dem seats expected to turn red: AL-02, LA-06, MO-05, TN-09, TX-09, and TX-32
3 Dem seats likely to turn red: FL-09, ME-02, and TX-35
3 Dem seats leaning red: FL-14, FL-22, and NC-01
On the other hand, Dems are likely to pick up 7 seats: UT-01 (due to redistricting), NE-02 (due to Bacon's retirement) and up to 5 seats in CA due to Prop. 50. Beyond that, it's toss-up territory, with four Democrats and 13 Republicans rated as toss-ups.
In sum, Dems are projected to lose 12 to 16 seats and gain 7 to 20 seats. Factoring in the three seats Dems are currently down, the path to a majority becomes extremely narrow.
All this to say, Prop 50 is CRITICAL in helping Dems flip the House. Regarding Prop 50's assumed 5 new Democratic seats:
CA-1: Likely Democratic flip. Open seat, newly drawn district; Harris would have carried these lines by 10+ points in 2024.
CA-3: Likely Democratic flip. Bera is a sitting Democratic incumbent (currently representing CA-6) running in this newly drawn seat; Harris would have carried these lines by 10+ points in 2024.
CA-22: Competitive pickup opportunity. Valadao is the Republican incumbent seeking re-election; Trump would have carried these new lines by about 2 points in 2024, down from a 6-point Trump margin under the old lines.
CA-41: Effectively a guaranteed Democratic pickup. The old Calvert seat, redrawn into southeast LA County (D+16); Sánchez is a sitting Democratic incumbent (currently representing CA-38) running in the renumbered seat; Harris would have carried these lines by roughly 16 points in 2024.
CA-48: Competitive pickup opportunity. Open seat; Republican Rep. Issa is not seeking re-election; Harris would have carried these lines by about 3 points in 2024.
Of these five districts intended to be pickups under Prop. 50, two will determine how much California ultimately delivers for Democrats this fall: CA-22 (Randy Villegas) and CA-48 (Marni von Wilpert). Both are among the 25 candidates named to the DCCC's 2026 Red to Blue program, yet they are flying well under the radar.
It is hard to raise money for California candidates—national donors assume California is flush with cash, but with 52 House races in California competing for attention and some of the country's most expensive media markets, California campaigns are chronically underfunded relative to what they actually need. Further, in both CA-22 and CA-48, a Republican led in the primary; thus, winning a Democratic House majority in November depends on Democratic voters consolidating quickly and enthusiastically behind Villegas and von Wilpert.