
Virginia Democrats are sweeping every statewide race. Except one.
Saturday night, our polling data came back and confirmed the worst-case scenario: thousands of Democratic voters plan to show up on Tuesday, vote blue down the ballot, and skip the Attorney General line entirely.
That one blank space hands the seat to Jason Miyares - the MAGA Republican who took thousands from private prison operator & ICE contractor GEO Group - and puts Virginia's entire Democratic agenda at risk for four years.
Our data science & production team worked through the weekend. We built the targeting model Sunday, picked the right version of our ad Monday morning, and launched hyper-targeted connected TV in Virginia.
The ad is live. We have 24 hours to reach as many at-risk voters as possible before polls close Tuesday at 7pm.
Here's what the data showed us:
This map shows where our polling identified Democratic voters most likely to skip the Attorney General line. The darker pink areas = highest concentration of at-risk voters.
Northern Virginia alone: ~30,000 households planning to vote blue down the ballot but leave the AG race blank. They're concentrated in Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax - the exact areas that decide statewide races.
These aren't disengaged voters. They're showing up. They're just not convinced yet on a down-ballot race that will determine whether Virginia has an Attorney General who protects communities - or one who enables ICE to run amok.
WHAT WE DEPLOYED
Our data science team worked through the weekend building a precision targeting model from the raw polling data. Here's the timeline:
📊 Saturday: Poll fielded → 800+ responses
🎯 Sunday: Targeting model built → 90,000 households scored
🎬 Monday morning: Ad produced and uploaded
📺 Monday evening: Connected TV ads LIVE
WHY THIS MATTERS
The AG controls whether Virginia cooperates with ICE deportations, how voting rights are defended, how reproductive protections are enforced, and if Virginia fights back against federal overreach.
Right now, North Carolina's AG Jeff Jackson is in court blocking Trump from cutting food assistance to 600,000 children. That's what pro-democracy AGs do. Miyares would do the opposite.
Virginia Dems are sweeping the Governor's mansion and every other statewide office. One blank space on the ballot could undo the entire sweep.
Every $500 we raise expands our reach to more voters before polls close Tuesday at 7pm.
We have the watch,
Samantha Boucher
Founder, Arsenal PAC