WY-AL: Wyoming is the ninth largest state in the Union, and the 50th in population. Its population is overwhelming white (and blue-eyed, oddly enough), and the few folks who aren't white (and blue-eyed) are largely Native American. Portions of the Arapaho, Shoshoni and Cheyenne Nations call Wyoming home. Blacks make up a whole 1% of the population; Hispanics make up 6%. Fully 13% of the population defines itself as veteran. Bush trounced Kerry 69% to 29% with the other 2% probably going to the Libertarians.
Here's what I said for the 2006 cycle:
Wyoming - I lived in Wyoming for awhile and found that the largest minority there were brown-eyed people. Honestly. Blacks, Hispanics, Indians, Jews, Asians, they all have brown eyes. And they don't make a dent in the blue-eyed population. In a state that gave Bush 69% and is one of three that still likes the guy, you have to give props to Gary Trauner, our guy in WY-AL. He has tremendous fundraising, and a cheap media market. He's running against an incumbent who is weak in the state and who came out of a primary where she didn't carry the major population centers (such as they are). In April, Trauner was only trailing by 4. If he can keep on keeping on, he might just do it...
WY-AL: Stay up late, have some popcorn, and keep the champagne cold.
Now, I know that it was a stretch thinking that Gary Trauner would knock Barbara Cubin out the first time. And, sure enough, he lost by a margin of 1,012 votes, 47.8 percent to 48.3 percent.
When I spoke to Gary at yKos, he said that he was approached by lots of people after the election who told him, "geez, if we knew you had a chance, we would have come out and voted for you". Well, hindsight being 20/20, and foresight being at least as good, Gary announced today that he's going to take on Cubin again, and, by Jove, I think he's going to do it!