Contribute Now to High-Return Picks by Sam Wang

by Sam Wang

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This page is set up by Sam Wang, creator of the Princeton Election Consortium. When you donate to a campaign, you should make sure that your money goes as far as possible. Think of your donation as an investment, where the return on your investment is an increase in your candidate's probability of winning.

By this reasoning you should give to campaigns where the polls are closest. Polls can tell us which candidates have a 20-80% chance of winning, which statistically speaking is a knife edge. If you give to these candidates, you're making your dollars go farthest.



Image of Al Franken

Al Franken

MN-Sen

Currently, polls are mixed but slightly favor Franken over Coleman. This race will be down to the wire, partly because of a strong third-party candidate.

Image of Jim Martin

Jim Martin

GA-Sen

Martin lags Chambliss by a small amount. His best chance is forcing a runoff. The Libertarian candidate's views are not as much out of line with Democratic positions as one might imagine.

Image of Ronnie Musgrove

Ronnie Musgrove

MS-Sen

Musgrove v. Wicker was close but is now looking less likely.

Image of Mark Begich

Mark Begich

AK-Sen

Begich v. Stevens was on a knife edge. But now that Stevens has been convicted, the race is basically over. Give to a different race!

Image of Jeff Merkley

Jeff Merkley

OR-Sen

Currently, Merkley leads Smith.

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