Contribute Now to The Pessimistic Democrat

by mole333

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I have been spending gobs and gobs of time studying about 5 different election predictions sites, some Democratic biased some Republican biased. I find myself torn regarding this election. Part of me is optimistic, seeing our chances as being HUGE and urging people to go for the gold and aiming for even long shot races. But my other side warns of over caution. I see Republican lying and election fraud coupled with Democratic laziness at the polls leading to a disappointment. That pessimistic side is designing thie Act Blue page...dedicated to heading off threats and picking up the few races that seem most possible. I should note that BOTH sides believe we will gain this year. But my pessimistic side recognizes we need to defend as much as attack and we can't spread our resources too thin. So here I focus on defense and on those races where even Republicans are predicting we might win and are fighting the hardest to keep.

If you agree, please donate here. If you disagree, please check out my Optimistic Democrat page!



Image of Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill

MO-Sen

Missouri is a tossup race right now and Republicans are putting all they can into holding it. Of the three "firewall" states that Republicans are defending their Senate seats the hardest (MO, TN, and VA), Missouri is the one we are most likely to take. This race is the most adventurous I am willing to go in my pessimistic moods. This race to a large degree is a referendum on life-saving stem cell research, with McCaskill favoring it and the Republican incumbent opposing it.

Image of Jon Tester

Jon Tester

MT-Sen

The Montana race has been leaning Dem all along...but the Republicans are fighting tooth and nail to keep it and I think it will tighten up to a tossup. But with some real fighting on our part, we can take it. Better shot than Missouri, but still not a given.

Image of Bob Menendez

Bob Menendez

NJ-Sen

Menendez was appointed to his Senate seat, so this is kind of his first time running for the spot. That makes him vulnerable and the Republicans have been aggressively going after him. I have a feeling that if we aren't careful they will succeed. This was leaning Republican for quite some time and only recently has started leaning Dem. This is our number one DEFENSE position. Their Senate "firewall" covers three states. Our firewall only has to cover one state...and that state is NJ. Let's make sure Menendez stays!

Image of Leonard Boswell

Leonard Boswell

IA-03

Boswell, a Vietnam Vet, is one of the Democratic Reps most targeted by Republicans. This is one of two House seats that I think most needs defending. Boswell has been in awhile and may have lost some of his enthusiasm, but he has been an excellent Congressman and Iowa as well as America is better off with him there. The Republicans targeted this seat because Boswell went through (and survived) a bout with cancer earlier. So the Republicans thought they could take advantage of a Vietnam Vet when he was down. We need to show them they are wrong.

Image of Julia Carson

Julia Carson

IN-07

Julia Carson is one of the most progressive Congressional Reps in the Midwest...so, in conservative Indiana, Republicans have targeted her heavily. She is only ahead by about 5 points in recent polls, and one poll, though anomolous, is worrisome because it showed her falling behind her Republican challenger. NJ Senate is the one Senate seat we have to defend, IA-3 and IN-7 are the two most critical House seats we have to defend.

Image of Brad Ellsworth

Brad Ellsworth

IN-08

IN-8 is one of our best pick up chances. It is a hard fight, but Brad Ellsworth, a local sheriff, seems to be poised to roll over the Republican incumbent...who is best known for getting himself off a gun violation by plea-bargaining.

Image of Gabrielle Giffords

Gabrielle Giffords

AZ-08

Giffords is up against a white supremicist who has been endorsed by former KKK grand wizard David Duke. This white supremicist connection became such an embarassment to the national Republican party that they pulled up stakes and gave up on AZ-8. But the race is still close. It is our best pick up chance of the year.

Image of Ed Perlmutter

Ed Perlmutter

CO-07

This one is a tossup that could go either way. It is an open seat in a district that Kerry carried in 2004, so we have a shot at turning it Dem.

Image of Tim Mahoney

Tim Mahoney

FL-16

This was considered solidly Republican. But that Republican was Foley. Foley was a sexual preditor, protected by a Republican cover up for six years. But the secret finally was exposed and so Foley resigned. Foley's name remains on the ballot even though another candidate is really running. This race has become a tossup.

Image of Jack Davis

Jack Davis

NY-26

Among the Republicans who covered up for sexual predator Foley was NY Congressman Reynolds. His protection of Foley is now backfiring on him and this race has become a tossup.

Image of Lois Murphy

Lois Murphy

PA-06

This is a rematch. The Rpublican incumbent beat Lois Murphy in 2004 only by 6000 votes...and a lot has happened since then. Bush, rather than helping with coat tails, is now an anchor weighing on the Republican incumbent. Both parties are spending about an equal amount on this race and it is one of the most hotly contested races in the nation. Leans Democrat, perhaps, but very close.

Image of Joseph Sestak Jr

Joseph Sestak Jr

PA-07

The Republican incumbent is largely a nobody. By contrast, Democrat Joe Sestak is a three-star admiral. This would be no contest if the Republican wasn't an incumbent. But it leans Democrat.

Image of Chris Carney

Chris Carney

PA-10

The Republican incumbent in PA-10 tried to choke his mistress of 5 years. She escaped to his bathroom and called 911 from within his house. Once rescued, she filed a lawsuit. That doesn't make for a good situation, even for an incumbent. As it is, this race is a tossup.

Image of Mary Jo Kilroy

Mary Jo Kilroy

OH-15

Corruption both at the state level in Ohio and nationally is so rampant that voters are sick of it. That is weighing down on the Republican incumbent, who is #4 in the Republican House leadership. This race is a referendum on Republican corruption and is a tossup.

Image of Zachary Space

Zachary Space

OH-18

This is another one that was "safe" Republican...but that Republican, Bob Ney, has now pled guilty for corruption. So Republicans quickly replaced him and are left with a tossup race.

Image of Nick Lampson

Nick Lampson

TX-22

Yet ANOTHER one that was "safe" Republican. In this case the Republican had far to fall and is still falling. Tom DeLay is not in prison yet, but it is probably only a matter of time. He is still on the ballot so his Republican replacement has to run as a write in. Tossup.

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